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Macro & Sector Strategy Blog
Curated market regime indicators
Select a Time Series
Select a time series to display
Macro
Wall Street
Trailing Sales %, YoY (S&P 500)
high and/or rising => buy risk
EBITDA Margin % of sales (S&P 500)
high and/or rising => buy risk
Net Liquidity (FED)
high and/or rising => buy risk
Main Street
Macro Demand (North America)
high and/or rising => increase risk
Labor Productivity %, 3-year rolling avg
high and/or rising => buy risk
Unit Labor Cost %, year-on-year
high and/or rising => reduce risk
Supply Chain Pressure Index
high and/or rising => reduce risk
Rates
US 10y-2y Slope
low and/or rising => buy risk
NFIB Small Businesses Paying Rate (%)
high and/or rising => reduce risk
Bond Volatility Index
high and/or rising => reduce risk
Sovereign 10Y US Yield Breakdown %
Equities
Fear & Greed (VIX index)
high and/or rising => reduce risk
Cons. Staples vs Cons. Discretionary
high and/or rising => reduce risk
Banks vs. S&P 500
high and/or rising => buy risk
Hardware vs. Software
high and/or rising => hardware leading
Real Estate vs. S&P500
high and/or rising => buy risk
Thematics & Hype
Semiconductor Prices
Price, 2011 = 100
LLM Token Prices
API $/1M tokens — Anthropic · OpenAI · Google · Mistral
Strait of Ormuz — Tankers
Tanker transits/day, 7-day avg
